Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/11/20082009 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IZILDA) 2.A POSITION 2009/03/25 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.1S / 42.2E (TWENTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /D 1.0/18 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 991 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 60 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 300 NO: 200 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/03/25 12 UTC: 23.6S/42.3E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2009/03/26 00 UTC: 23.8S/42.4E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2009/03/26 12 UTC: 23.9S/42.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/03/27 00 UTC: 23.7S/42.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/03/27 12 UTC: 23.5S/41.4E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2009/03/28 00 UTC: 23.3S/40.4E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=3.0 MODERATE TROPICAL STORM IZILDA CONTINUES TP INTENSIFY DEEP CONVECTION EXISTS NEAR THE CENTER AS IT IS SHOWN BY THE RECENT INFRA RED IMAGERY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE STILL RATHER FOVBOURABLE, AS THE SYSTEM TRACKING ON WARM SEAS (28.5°c), AND IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A WEAK WIND SHEAR AND A GOOD POLARWARD OUTFLOW. STRONGER WINDS EXTEND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER DUE TO THE GRADIENT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STABLE DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS, SO THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOWER THAN EXPECTED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD. IT IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE REALLY WESTWARD BEYOND 24 HOURS DUE TO THE REBUILT OF THE HIGH GEOPOTENTIAL SOUTH OF THE METEOR.