Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 8/11/20082009 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IZILDA) 2.A POSITION 2009/03/26 AT 0000 UTC : 23.6S / 43.0E (TWENTY THREE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : EAST 3 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /D 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 974 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 30 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 250 NO: 150 50 KT NE: 030 SE: 030 SO: 030 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 350 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/03/26 12 UTC: 23.5S/42.5E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2009/03/27 00 UTC: 23.2S/41.9E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2009/03/27 12 UTC: 22.7S/40.8E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/03/28 00 UTC: 22.4S/40.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/03/28 12 UTC: 22.2S/39.5E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2009/03/29 00 UTC: 22.2S/38.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=4.0+. NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS STOPPED DEVELOPPMENT OF THE SYSTEM, THE EYE HAS DISAPEARED ON THE SATELLITE IMAGERY. A WEAK TILT IS VISIBLE ON MICROWAVES DATA (CF TRMM 1818z). IZILDA HAS CLEARLY SLOWN DOWN ESATWARDSAND IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE SOON WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES REBUILDING IN ITS SOUTHWEST AND BECOMING THE MAIN STEERING FLOW. UPPER-LEVEL JET (WELL SHOWED ON INFRARED METEOSAT7 IMAGERY) EXISTING IN THE WEST AND IN THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE A LIMITATING FACTOR AS THE SYSTEM RECURVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS, THEN THE STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY WINDSHEAR (BEYOND TAU24 TO 36) SHOULD WEAKEN THIS SYSTEM IOF SMALL SIZE.