Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

*************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 11/11/20082009 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IZILDA) 2.A POSITION 2009/03/26 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.6S / 41.8E (TWENTY THREE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : WEST-NORTH-WEST 5 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/3.0 /W 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 994 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 30 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 090 SE: 200 SO: 200 NO: 090 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 550 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/03/27 06 UTC: 23.2S/41.2E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2009/03/27 18 UTC: 22.9S/40.2E, MAX WIND=025KT , TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2009/03/28 06 UTC: 22.8S/38.9E, MAX WIND=020KT , TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2009/03/28 18 UTC: 22.8S/37.7E, MAX WIND=015KT , FILLING UP. 60H: 2009/03/29 06 UTC: 23.2S/36.7E, MAX WIND=015KT , FILLING UP. 72H: 2009/03/29 18 UTC: 23.4S/36.2E, MAX WIND=015KT , FILLING UP. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.5- CI=3.0 THE SYSTEM HAS DRASTICALLY AND QUICKLY WEAKENED WITHIN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS OBVIOUS ON THE IMAGERY. LLCC IS NOW FULLY EXPOSED WEST OF THE RESIDUAL CONVECTION, WHICH IS EASTWARDS AWAY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF MADAGASCAR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERIES SHOW A DRIER AIR INTRUSION IN THE WEST. IZILDA HAS TRACKED ERRATICALLY AS FORECASTED YESTERDAY AND IS NOW TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. UPPER-LEVEL JET PRESENT IN THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A LIMITATING FACTOR. THEN THE STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY WINDSHEAR (BEYOND TAU 24 TO 36) SHOULD WEAKEN THIS SMALL SIZE SYSTEM. CORRECTIVE ISSUED DUE TO A ERRONATED TREND WITHIN THE LAST 24 HOURS (W1.5/24H) 2009/03/25 AT 18Z : T=4.0+ 2009/03/26 AT 18Z : T=2.5-