Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 12/11/20082009 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (IZILDA) 2.A POSITION 2009/03/27 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.6S / 41.4E (TWENTY THREE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : WEST-NORTH-WEST 5 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /W 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 40 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 080 SE: 180 SO: 180 NO: 080 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 550 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/03/27 12 UTC: 23.0S/40.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2009/03/28 00 UTC: 22.4S/39.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2009/03/28 12 UTC: 22.1S/37.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2009/03/29 00 UTC: 21.7S/36.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2009/03/29 12 UTC: 21.6S/35.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2009/03/30 00 UTC: 20.8S/33.6E, MAX WIND=020KT, OVERLAND. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.5- CI=2.5+ THE SYSTEM HAS DRASTICALLY AND QUICKLY WEAKENED WITHIN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS OBVIOUS ON THE IMAGERY. LLCC IS NOW FULLY EXPOSED WEST OF THE RESIDUAL CONVECTION, WHICH IS EASTWARDS AWAY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF MADAGASCAR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERIES SHOW A DRIER AIR INTRUSION IN THE WEST. AS FORECASTED IZILDA IS NOW TRACKONG WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS FORECASTED BEEING TO STRONG FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS , THEREFORE RE-INTENSIFICATION IS NOT EXPECTED.