Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 13/11/20082009 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 11 (EX-IZILDA) 2.A POSITION 2009/03/27 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.4S / 41.8E (TWENTY THREE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : QUASI-STATIONARY 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/2.0 /W 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: SE: 150 SO: 100 NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 450 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/03/27 18 UTC: 22.9S/40.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2009/03/28 06 UTC: 22.4S/39.3E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP. 36H: 2009/03/28 18 UTC: 22.0S/37.8E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING. 48H: 2009/03/29 06 UTC: 21.5S/36.3E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING. 60H: 2009/03/29 18 UTC: 21.2S/35.3E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING. 72H: 2009/03/30 06 UTC: 21.0S/34.5E DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=1.5 CI=2.0 POSITION OF THE LLCC HAS BEEN RELOCATED NORTHEASTWARDS (COMPARE TO 00Z FIX) ACCORDING TO FIRST VISIBLE IMAGERY. THE SYSTEM HAS DRASTICALLY AND QUICKLY WEAKENED WITHIN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS OBVIOUS ON THE IMAGERY. LLCC IS NOW FULLY EXPOSED NORTHWESTWARDS OF THE RESIDUAL CONVECTION. EX-IZILDA HAS TEMPORARELY STOPPED ITS NORTHWESTWARDS MOVEMENT (SPEED ESTIMATED AT LESS THAN 2 KT TOWARDS THE NORTH WEST -320°- BETWEEN THE LAST GOOD ACCURACY TRMM FIX OF 17:22 TU AND THE PRESENT 06Z FIX). IT SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY ACCELARATING A BIT WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS FORECASTED BEEING TO STRONG FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS , THEREFORE RE-INTENSIFICATION IS NOT EXPECTED.