Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 14/11/20082009 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 11 (EX-IZILDA) 2.A POSITION 2009/03/27 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.1S / 41.1E (TWENTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : WEST-NORTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.0/2.0 /W 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1003 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: SE: 120 SO: NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/03/28 00 UTC: 22.6S/39.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, FILLING UP. 24H: 2009/03/28 12 UTC: 22.2S/38.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING. 36H: 2009/03/29 00 UTC: 21.8S/36.7E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING. 48H: 2009/03/29 12 UTC: 21.4S/35.7E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING. 60H: 2009/03/30 00 UTC: 20.8S/34.3E DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=1.0 CI=2.0 RESIDUAL CIRCULATION OF EX-IZILDA, LOCATED AROUND 60 NM SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA, HAS TRACKED WESTNORTHWESTWARDS (290°) OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS AT ABOUT 7 KT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DURABLY UNFAVORABLE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS (QUITE STRONG NORTHNORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR) AND NO RE-INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE RESIDUAL LOW MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE MOZAMBICAN COAST LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT BETWEEN VILANCULOS AND BEIRA. FORCAST TRACK IS BASED ON A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE NWP MODELS. STEERED BY THE LOW LEL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE CHANNEL, SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP ON ITS WESTNORTHWESTWARDS TO NORTHWESTWARDS TRACK (AVERAGE DIRECTION: 290°)