Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 15/11/20082009 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 11 (EX-IZILDA) 2.A POSITION 2009/03/27 AT 1800 UTC : 22.4S / 40.5E (TWENTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : WEST-NORTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.0/1.5 /W 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1004 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/03/28 06 UTC: 22.2S/38.9E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP. 24H: 2009/03/28 18 UTC: 21.9S/37.5E, MAX WIND=015KT, DISSIPATING. 36H: 2009/03/29 06 UTC: 21.4S/36.1E, MAX WIND=015KT, DISSIPATING. 48H: 2009/03/29 18 UTC: 21.0S/35.0E DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=1.0 CI=1.5 RESIDUAL CIRCULATION OF EX-IZILDA IS CURRENTLY LOCATED AT ABOUT 15 NM SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DURABLY UNFAVORABLE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS (QUITE STRONG NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR) AND REINTENSIFICATION IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THE RESIDUAL LOW MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT BETWEEN VILANCULOS AND BEIRA. FORCAST TRACK IS BASED ON A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE NWP MODELS. STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE CHANNEL, SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP ON TRACKING ITS WESTNORTHWESTWARDS TO NORTHWESTWARDS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.