Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 7/12/20082009 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JADE) 2.A POSITION 2009/04/05 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.4S / 51.5E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 5 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /D 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 975 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 45 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 160 SE: 250 SO: 250 NO: 160 50 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 060 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 750 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/04/06 06 UTC: 16.2S/50.2E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2009/04/06 18 UTC: 17.8S/49.4E, MAX WIND=035KT, OVERLAND. 36H: 2009/04/07 06 UTC: 19.1S/49.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, OVERLAND. 48H: 2009/04/07 18 UTC: 20.2S/48.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2009/04/08 06 UTC: 21.2S/48.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2009/04/08 18 UTC: 22.1S/48.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=4.0 CLOUDY PATTERN HAS IMPROVED AND SHOWS NOW A BAND EYE PATTERN IN ENHANCED INFRARED AND IN MICROWAVE (SEE SSMIS 1418Z AND SSMI 1515Z). VERTICAL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVOURABLE BUT INTENFICATION SHOULD BE SOON LIMITED AS THE MALAGASY COASTLINE INTERRACTS. IT COULD HOWEVER REACH TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVOURABLE WITH A WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IN THE AREA AND A GOOD DUAL UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, OBVIOUS ON THE ANIMATED IMAGERY. SYSTEM IS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW GENERATED BY THE MID LEVEL RIDGE EXISTING EAST OF THE SYSTEM. AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXPECTED TRACK. SOME OF THEM FORECAST A DIRECT TRACK TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN MALAGASY COASTLINE (LANDFALL WITHIN TAU 12 TO 24) BUT MOST OF THEM FORECAST A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK ON AND AFTER TAU 12 ALONG EASTERN MALAGASY COAST. THE SYSTEM INTENSITY WILL STRONGLY DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THIS EXPECTED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK. ON AND AFTER TAU 60, SYSTEM SHOULD UNDERGO A NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR.