Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 8/12/20082009 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JADE) 2.A POSITION 2009/04/06 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.6S / 50.3E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 10 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /D 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 975 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 45 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 160 SE: 250 SO: 250 NO: 160 50 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 060 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/04/06 12 UTC: 16.5S/49.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2009/04/07 00 UTC: 17.6S/49.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, OVERLAND. 36H: 2009/04/07 12 UTC: 19.0S/48.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, OVERLAND. 48H: 2009/04/08 00 UTC: 20.3S/48.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, OVERLAND. 60H: 2009/04/08 12 UTC: 21.0S/48.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, OVERLAND. 72H: 2009/04/09 00 UTC: 21.7S/48.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=4.0 JADE IS MAKING LANDFALL OVER THE PENINSULA OF MASOALA SOUTH OF ANTALAHA. IT KEEPS ON TRACKING CLOSE TO THE EASTERN MALAGASY COASTS WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS , PROBABLY OVERLAND THEREFORE WEAKENING RAPIDLY. STRONGEST WINDS EXTEND IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. AVAILABLE NWP MODELS KEEP ON DISAGREE ABOUT THE FORECASTED TRACKS OF JADE.