Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 9/12/20082009 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JADE) 2.A POSITION 2009/04/06 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.8S / 49.8E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 9 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/4.0 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 977 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 45 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 160 SE: 250 SO: 250 NO: 160 50 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 060 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/04/06 18 UTC: 16.5S/48.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, OVERLAND. 24H: 2009/04/07 06 UTC: 17.7S/48.3E, MAX WIND=020KT, OVERLAND. 36H: 2009/04/07 18 UTC: 19.1S/48.1E, MAX WIND=020KT, OVERLAND. 48H: 2009/04/08 06 UTC: 20.3S/48.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING. 60H: 2009/04/08 18 UTC: 21.0S/48.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING. 72H: 2009/04/09 06 UTC: 21.7S/48.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.5 AND CI=4.0 JADE HAS CROSSED EARLY THIS MORNING THE MASAOLA PENINSULA. THE CENTER HAS THEN MOVED BACK OVER WATER SOUTH OF MAROANTSERA. IT IS CURRENTLY MAKING A SECOND LANDFALL BETWEEN RANTABE AND MANANARA. IT KEEPS ON TRACKING CLOSE TO THE EASTERN MALAGASY COASTS WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS , PROBABLY OVERLAND THEREFORE WEAKENING RAPIDLY. 00Z RUN OF THE FRENCH MODEL ALADIN THAT HAS MADE A GOOD JOB UNTIL NOW FOR JADE'S TRACK FORECAST, MAINTAINS THE SYSTEM OVERLAND WITHIN THE NEXT THREE DAYS. CONSEQUENTLY, OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED WESTWARDS AND ON THIS TRACK JADE COULD COMPLETLY BEEN DISSIPATED WITHIN THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTICE THAT A SMALL DEVIATION OF THE FORECAST TRACK TOWARDS A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT COULD BRING BACK THE CENTER OF WATER WITH A POSSIBLE REINTENSIFICATION.