Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 10/12/20082009 1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 12 (EX-JADE) 2.A POSITION 2009/04/06 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.3S / 49.4E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 6 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : /W 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SO: 070 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 750 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/04/07 00 UTC: 17.5S/48.9E, MAX WIND=020KT, OVERLAND. 24H: 2009/04/07 12 UTC: 19.2S/48.3E, MAX WIND=020KT, OVERLAND. 36H: 2009/04/08 00 UTC: 20.3S/47.9E, MAX WIND=020KT, OVERLAND. 48H: 2009/04/08 12 UTC: 21.6S/47.5E, MAX WIND=015KT, DISSIPATING. 60H: 2009/04/09 00 UTC: 22.4S/47.3E, MAX WIND=015KT, DISSIPATING. 72H: 2009/04/09 12 UTC: 22.9S/47.6E, MAX WIND=015KT, DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: OVERLAND JADE HAS CROSSED EARLY THIS MORNING THE MASAOLA PENINSULA. THE CENTER HAS THEN MOVED BACK OVER WATER SOUTH OF MAROANTSERA TO MAKE A SECOND LANDFALL BETWEEN RANTABE AND MANANARA AROUND 06Z. STEERED BY A NORTHNORTHEASTERLY FLOW GIVEN BY THE MID LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM (AROUND 60E), IT SHOULD TAKE A MORE SOUTHWARDS COMPONENT WITHIN THE NEXT HOURS. 00Z RUN SHOW A QUIT STRONG SPREAD FOR THE TRACK FORECAST. NGP AND GFDN BRING THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR AND AT THE OPPOSITE, ECMWF AND UKMO BRING THE CENTER CLOSE TO THE EASTERN COAST AND FINALLY MOVE IT BACK OVER WATER AROUND THURSDAY ... PRESENT FORECAST IS BASED ON A GLOBAL CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE NWP MODELS AND ON THIS TRACK THE SYSTEM STAY OVER LAND AND COULD DISSIPATE WITHIN THE FORECAST PERIOD HOWEVER IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTICE THAT THERE IS A STRONGER THAN USUAL UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FORECAST TRACK. IT IS NOT UNLIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM COULD MOVE BACK OVER WATER WITHIN THE NEXT 72 HOURS NEAR THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR.