Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 13/12/20082009 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JADE) 2.A POSITION 2009/04/07 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.1S / 49.1E (NINETEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 / 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 994 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 420 SE: 500 SO: NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/04/07 18 UTC: 20.7S/49.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2009/04/08 06 UTC: 21.3S/48.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2009/04/08 18 UTC: 21.8S/48.6E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/04/09 06 UTC: 22.3S/48.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/04/09 18 UTC: 23.0S/48.2E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2009/04/10 06 UTC: 23.7S/48.0E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=3.0. THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID LAVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED IN THE EAST. THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION HAS JUST MOVED BACK OVER WATER DURING THE LAST HOUR SOUTH TO TAMATAVE ON A TRACK SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE TO INTENSIFICATION DURING THRE NEXT 36 HOURS WITH A GOOD POLAR OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AGAIN OVER SEAS, BEFORE THE DEFAVORABLE EFFECTS OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR UP TO TAU 36. THE SOUTHWARDS TRACK IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGHS REBUILT SOPUTH TO MADAGASCAR