Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

*************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 14/12/20082009 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JADE) 2.A POSITION 2009/04/07 AT 1200 UTC : 20.3S / 49.2E (TWENTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH 8 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 994 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 40 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 350 SE: 500 SO: NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/04/08 00 UTC: 21.5S/48.8E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2009/04/08 12 UTC: 22.3S/48.4E, MAX WIND=045KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2009/04/09 00 UTC: 22.9S/48.1E, MAX WIND=045KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/04/09 12 UTC: 23.5S/47.9E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/04/10 00 UTC: 24.3S/47.8E, MAX WIND=030KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2009/04/10 12 UTC: 25.0S/47.9E, MAX WIND=025KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID LAVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED IN THE EAST. THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION HAS JUST MOVED BACK OVER WATER DURING THE MORNING SOUTH TO TAMATAVE ON A TRACK SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARDS.THE SOUTHWARDS TRACK IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGHS REBUILT TEMPORALY SOUTH TO MADAGASCAR ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE TO INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A GOOD POLAR OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AGAIN OVER SEAS EVEN IF THE , BEFORE THE DEFAVORABLE EFFECTS OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR UP TO TAU 24.