Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

*************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 15/12/20082009 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JADE) 2.A POSITION 2009/04/07 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.8S / 49.1E (TWENTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH 8 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /D 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 994 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 40 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 350 SE: 450 SO: 200 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/04/08 06 UTC: 21.8S/48.7E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2009/04/08 18 UTC: 22.5S/48.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2009/04/09 06 UTC: 23.3S/48.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2009/04/09 18 UTC: 24.1S/48.1E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2009/04/10 06 UTC: 24.8S/48.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2009/04/10 18 UTC: 25.4S/48.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=3.0 AFTER A FEW HOURS WHERE IT WAS ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO PROVIDE A DVORAK ANALYSIS OVER THE SYSTEM BUT WHERE IT WAS SHOWING SOME GALE FORCE WINDS OVER A LARGE AREA WITHIN THE EASTERN SEMI CIRCLE (CF. TODAY'S QUICKSCAT AND ASCAT PASS), A NICE CURCED BAND HAS MAINTAINED SINCE 15 TU IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. AT 18 TU, THE SYSTEM SHOWS A WHITE BAND AT 0.5° ON A LOG 10 SPIRAL, THAT GIVES A DT AT 3.0. THE SYSTEM STILL TRACKS SOUTHWARD OVER THE LAST HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID LAVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED IN THE EAST. THE SOUTHWARDS TRACK IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN TOMORROW AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGHS REBUILT TEMPORALY SOUTH TO MADAGASCAR AS THE SYSTEM IS BACK OVER QUIT WARM WATER, STRENGHENING IS ON THE WAY. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF LAND AND A GRADUAL DETERIORATION OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, INTENSIFICATION SHOULD BE LIMITED (GRADUALLY STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY SHEAR)