Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

*************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 16/12/20082009 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JADE) 2.A POSITION 2009/04/08 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.4S / 48.7E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /D 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 987 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 40 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 250 SE: 400 SO: 200 NO: 110 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/04/08 12 UTC: 22.3S/48.2E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2009/04/09 00 UTC: 22.9S/47.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, OVERLAND. 36H: 2009/04/09 12 UTC: 23.5S/47.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, OVERLAND. 48H: 2009/04/10 00 UTC: 24.3S/47.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2009/04/10 12 UTC: 25.6S/48.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2009/04/11 00 UTC: 27.3S/51.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=3.5- CONVECTION WRAPPED 0.8 ON A LOG 10 SPIRAL. LOWER ACCURACY ON PRESENT FIX THAT HAS BEEN MADE MAINLY WITH IR MET7 IMAGERY. UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED IN THE EAST. AND THE REBUILT OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGHS SOUTH TO MADAGASCAR, TRACKS HAS TAKEN A MORE SOUTHSOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK, SYSTEM SHOULD MAKE A THIRD LANDFALL THIS EVENING OR LATER TONIGHT WITHIN THE AREA BETWEEN MANANJARY AND FARAFANGANA OR STAY VERY CLOSE TO THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN MADAGASCAR. FRIDAY, A DEEP MID-LAT TROUGH ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND JADE SHOULD BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. BY THAT TIME, SYSTEM SHOULD ON A WEAKENING TREND WITHIN A WESTERLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND A POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH LAND. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION COULD BE ON THE WAY SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. PRESENT TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON A GLOBAL CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE NWP MODELS FROM THE 12Z RUN THAT SHOW SOME QUIT GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE GENERAL PHILOSOPHY. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD AND THE OUTLIER ONE IS THE UKMET THAT BRING THE SYSTEM EASTWARDS FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME AND ACCORDING TO ALL THE SCENARII SHOWN BY THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM, THE UKMO SOLUTION SEEMS RATHER UNLIKELY.