Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 17/12/20082009 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JADE) 2.A POSITION 2009/04/08 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.9S / 49.0E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH 6 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /S 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 987 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 40 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 500 SE: 300 SO: 200 NO: 200 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 250 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/04/08 18 UTC: 22.6S/48.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2009/04/09 06 UTC: 23.2S/47.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, OVERLAND. 36H: 2009/04/09 18 UTC: 23.9S/47.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, OVERLAND. 48H: 2009/04/10 06 UTC: 24.9S/47.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2009/04/10 18 UTC: 26.8S/49.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2009/04/11 06 UTC: 29.0S/51.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=3.5- QUIKSCAT DATA AT 02.30 CONFIRM MAX WIND AT 45KT. ON PRESENT FIX HAS BEEN MADE LAST WITH CC MET7 IMAGERY. UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED IN THE EAST AND THE REBUILT OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGHS SOUTH TO MADAGASCAR, TRACKS IS EXPECTED TO CURVE MORE SOUTHWESTERWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK, SYSTEM SHOULD MAKE A THIRD LANDFALL TONIGHT WITHIN THE AREA OF FARAFANGANA. FRIDAY, A DEEP MID-LAT TROUGH ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND JADE SHOULD BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. BY THAT TIME, SYSTEM SHOULD ON A WEAKENING TREND WITHIN A WESTERLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND A POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH LAND. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION COULD BE ON THE WAY SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST.