Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 18/12/20082009 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JADE) 2.A POSITION 2009/04/08 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.0S / 49.3E (TWENTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : QUASI-STATIONARY 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/3.0 /W 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 991 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 400 SE: 400 SO: 200 NO: 200 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/04/09 00 UTC: 22.5S/49.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2009/04/09 12 UTC: 23.0S/48.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2009/04/10 00 UTC: 23.9S/48.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2009/04/10 12 UTC: 25.1S/49.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2009/04/11 00 UTC: 26.9S/51.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2009/04/11 12 UTC: 30.6S/54.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.5,CI=3.0 LAST ANIMATED IMAGERY SHOWS NORTH-WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS LOCATED SOUTH-EAST OF THE LLCC. THE SYSTEM WAS ALMOST STATIONNARY DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURES SOUTH OF MALAGASY. IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, AND THEN AFTER SOUTH-EASTWARD WHILE ACCELERATING, AS IT WILL BE STEERED BY A MID LATITUDE TROUGH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEGRADE (INCREASING OF THE UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR, ARRIVAL ON COOLER SST) AND THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BEFORE BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.