Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

*************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 19/12/20082009 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JADE) 2.A POSITION 2009/04/08 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.0S / 49.3E (TWENTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : QUASI-STATIONARY 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/3.0 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 994 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 36 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 60 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 200 SE: 300 SO: 200 NO: 150 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/04/09 06 UTC: 22.5S/49.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2009/04/09 18 UTC: 23.7S/49.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2009/04/10 06 UTC: 24.9S/50.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2009/04/10 18 UTC: 26.6S/52.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2009/04/11 06 UTC: 29.4S/54.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2009/04/11 18 UTC: 33.5S/56.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.5-,CI=3.0- THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONNARY DUE TO THE SUBTROPICAL HIGHS IN THE SOUTH. THE NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS CLEARLY INCREASED DURING THE LAST HOURS, CONVECTION IS SWEPT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GO ON WEAKENING UNDERGOING THIS STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND TRACKING OVER COOLER SST, TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHWARDS, THEN EVACUATE WITH THE NEXT TROUGH UP TO TAU 48 BECOMING EXTRA-TROPICAL.