Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 20/12/20082009 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JADE) 2.A POSITION 2009/04/09 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.6S / 49.8E (TWENTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 4 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 55 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 150 SE: 400 SO: 250 NO: 120 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/04/09 12 UTC: 23.7S/50.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2009/04/10 00 UTC: 25.0S/50.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2009/04/10 12 UTC: 26.8S/52.0E, MAX WIND=035KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2009/04/11 00 UTC: 29.6S/54.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2009/04/11 12 UTC: 33.7S/56.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2009/04/12 00 UTC: 38.0S/59.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+, CI=2.5+. THE SYSTEM IS NOW TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS, IT IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE PROGRESIVELY TOWARDS THIS DIRECTION. THE NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS CLEARLY INCREASED, CONVECTION IS SWEPT IN THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CIRCULATION, AND THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS NOW VISIBLE ON THE NORHWESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GO ON WEAKENING UNDERGOING THIS STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, TRACKING OVER COOLER SST, THEN EVACUATE WITH THE NEXT TROUGH UP TO TAU 48 BECOMING EXTRA-TROPICAL.