Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 23/12/20082009 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12 (EX-JADE) 2.A POSITION 2009/04/09 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.7S / 50.6E (TWENTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : EAST-SOUTH-EAST 3 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /D 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 250 SE: 360 SO: 250 NO: 200 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 650 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/04/10 06 UTC: 23.5S/51.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2009/04/10 18 UTC: 24.4S/52.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 36H: 2009/04/11 06 UTC: 27.7S/55.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2009/04/11 18 UTC: 32.5S/57.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2009/04/12 06 UTC: 36.3S/58.6E, MAX WIND=045KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2009/04/12 18 UTC: 39.7S/61.4E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0, CI=2.5 CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS ENHANCE DURING THE LAST HOURS NEAR EX-JADE LLCC WHICH HAS TRACK SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD. STRONGER WINDS ARE NOW LOCATED AT MORE THAN 30MN FROM THE LLCC (CF. QUIKSCAT DATA AT 14.53Z). THEY LOCALLY REACH THE GALE FORCE WIND IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEPS ON TRACKING GLOBALLY SOUTHEASTWARDS SPEEDING UP TOWARDS A POLAR TROUGH WHICH WILL PROGRESSIVELY TAKING PLACE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE BELT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEGRADE AS THE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR INCREASE AND AS SST DECREASE. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AFTER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WINDS COULD STRENGHTEN AGAIN AS THE LOW MERGE WITH THE POLAR TROUGH.