Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 25/12/20082009 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 12 (JADE) 2.A POSITION 2009/04/10 AT 0600 UTC : 23.7S / 52.3E (TWENTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : EAST-SOUTH-EAST 9 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /D 1.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 991 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 40 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 250 SE: 400 SO: 200 NO: 150 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/04/10 18 UTC: 25.1S/53.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2009/04/11 06 UTC: 28.5S/56.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 36H: 2009/04/11 18 UTC: 33.6S/58.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2009/04/12 06 UTC: 36.9S/59.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2009/04/12 18 UTC: 41.5S/64.2E, MAX WIND=045KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2009/04/13 06 UTC: 47.5S/71.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=cI=3.0 THE SYSTEM HAS REINTENSIFIED OVER LAST NIGHT WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LOCATED LESS THAN 0.5 DEGREE FROM THE ESTIMATED CENTRE. QUIKSCAT DATA 0318Z SHOW A VERY WELL DEFINED LLCC WITH WINDS REACHING 35/40 KT (NOT CONTAMINATED BY RAIN). DESPITE THE PERSISTENT WESTERLY WINDSHEAR, IT SEEMS THE SYSTEM HAS REINTENSIFIED THANKS TO THE EXCELLENT POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE (POLAR JETSTREAM). THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARDS BEYOND RANGE 12 AND CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE THEN EVACUATE TOWARDS THE EXTRATROPICAL LATITUDES THANKS TO THE TRANSIENT THALWEG IN THE SOUTH.