Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 27/12/20082009 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12 (EX-JADE) 2.A POSITION 2009/04/10 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.7S / 53.6E (TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 12 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 45 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 180 SE: 470 SO: 180 NO: 100 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2009/04/11 06 UTC: 28.8S/55.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 24H: 2009/04/11 18 UTC: 33.2S/57.2E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 36H: 2009/04/12 06 UTC: 37.5S/59.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2009/04/12 18 UTC: 41.9S/64.2E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2009/04/13 06 UTC: 47.5S/70.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.5-, CI=2.5 AFTER A RENEWAL OF ACTIVITY LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING, THE SYSTEM UNDERGOES THE STRONG WESTERLY WINDSHEAR, THE LLCC IS EXPOSED IN THE WEST OF THE CONVECTION. QUIKSCAT 1418Z SWATH SHOWS 35/40KT UNFLAGED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER BUT SYSTEM IS NOW QUICKLY WEAKENING. GALE FORCE WINDS SHOULD HOWEVER PROBABLY EXIST IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES AND THE OWN MOTION OF THE SYSTEM. IT HAS BEGUN TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARDS ; IT SHOULD QUICKLY EVACUATE TOWARDS THE EXTRATROPICAL LATITUDES THANKS TO THE TRANSITING THALWEG IN THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. WINDS SHOULD TEMPORARELY STRENGHTEN ON AND AFTER THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BUT THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BAYOND TAU 60 MERGING IN A POLAR TROUGH.