Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47


WTIO30 FMEE 060640


RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 8/8/20092010
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (EDZANI)

2.A POSITION 2010/01/06 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.7S / 82.6E
(TWELVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 25 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 250 SE: 080 SO: 150 NO: 150

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/01/06 18 UTC: 13.3S/80.9E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
24H: 2010/01/07 06 UTC: 13.8S/79.4E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
36H: 2010/01/07 18 UTC: 14.4S/77.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
48H: 2010/01/08 06 UTC: 14.8S/76.3E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
60H: 2010/01/08 18 UTC: 15.3S/74.5E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
72H: 2010/01/09 06 UTC: 16.0S/72.1E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.0-

LAST AVAILABLE MICROWAVE SHOWS A BANDING EYE FEATURE.
SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED RAPIDLY WITHIN THE LAST FEW HOURS.

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS WEAKEN (CF. CIMSS DATA).

DIVERGENCE IS STRENGTHENING EQUATORWARDS. LOW LEVELS INFLOWS AND OCEANIC
HEAT CONTENT ARE VERY GOOD UP TO RANGE 72H.
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AT LEAST.

THE FORECAST IS BASED ON THE AVAILABLE MODELS, WHICH ARE RATHER IN GOOD
AGREEMENT.