Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47


WTIO30 FMEE 070611


RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 12/8/20092010
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (EDZANI)

2.A POSITION 2010/01/07 AT 0600 UTC :
14.1S / 80.1E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/4.5 /D 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 970 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 30 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 250 SE: 150 SO: 100 NO: 250
50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/01/07 18 UTC: 14.6S/78.9E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
24H: 2010/01/08 06 UTC: 15.3S/77.8E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
36H: 2010/01/08 18 UTC: 15.9S/76.5E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
48H: 2010/01/09 06 UTC: 16.6S/74.6E, MAX WIND=095KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
60H: 2010/01/09 18 UTC: 17.5S/72.6E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
72H: 2010/01/10 06 UTC: 18.5S/70.7E, MAX WIND=105KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=4.5-

THE SYSTEM KEEP ON INTENSIFYING DUE TO VERY GOOD ENVIRONNEMENTAL
CONDITIONS, UN EYE IS VISIBLE ON SATELITE IIMAGERY SINCE 04Z.

SYSTEM KEEPS ON TRACKING WESTSOUTHWESTWARD, THE STEERING FLOW IS A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN ITS SOUTH-EAST EXISTING IN THE LOW AND
MID-TROPOSPHERE.

UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD SPECIALLY EQUATORWARD.
A POLEWARDS OUTFLOW SHOULD BUID TODAY AS A SHORT WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS CURRENTLY PASSING TO THE SOUTH. SYSTEM IS ALSO OVER HIGH HEAT CONTENT
WATERS.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GO ON INTENSIFYING DURING THE PERIOD.