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WTIO30 FMEE 080031


RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 15/8/20092010
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (EDZANI)

2.A POSITION 2010/01/08 AT 0000 UTC :
15.2S / 78.3E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL THREE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.0/6.0 /D 2.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 923 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 105 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 10 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 300 SE: 350 SO: 320 NO: 300
50 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 120

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/01/08 12 UTC: 15.5S/77.2E, MAX WIND=105KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
24H: 2010/01/09 00 UTC: 16.1S/75.7E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
36H: 2010/01/09 12 UTC: 16.9S/73.9E, MAX WIND=095KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
48H: 2010/01/10 00 UTC: 17.8S/72.0E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
60H: 2010/01/10 12 UTC: 19.1S/70.6E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
72H: 2010/01/11 00 UTC: 20.1S/69.6E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=6.0+

SYSTEM INTENSIFICATION WAS SLOWER OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
A DEEP CONVECTION BAND HAS FORMED IN THE NORTHERN SECTIR. EYE WAS
ELONGATED DURING FEW HOURS AND BECAME SMALLER ON THE LAST INFRA-RED
PICTURE.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE STILL VERY FAVOURABLE UP TO 36TAU
(PARTICULARLY, WITH A PERSISTING EQUATORWARD UPPER OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND A
POLAR ONE APPEARING BETWEEN 24 AND 36 TAU).
EDZANI HAS ENCOUNTERED VERY FAVOURABLE ENERGETIC CONTITIONS WITHIN THE
LAST 18 HOURS. SST SHOULD LOWER SLOWLY NOW ACCORDING TO THE FORECASTED
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM : EDZANI IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER MORE THAN 27C
SST UNTIL TAU 48 (WEST-SOUTHWEST MOVEMENT) AND BEYOND SST SHOULD LOWER
MORE RAPIDLY (S
OUTH-WEST MOVEMENT).
CONSEQUENTLY, EDZANI IS EXPECTED TO STAY STEADY OR WEAKEN SLOWLY UNTIL
TAU 36 TO 48, BEYOND ITS INTENSITY SHOULD WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY.

THE STEERING CURRENT IS A DEEP RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM. AT
THE END OF THE RANGE FORECAST, A TROUGH SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD STEER
IT MORE SOUTH-WESTWARD.

THIS FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF THE AVALAIBLE NWP MODELS WHICH ARE IN
RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM.