Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47


WTIO30 FMEE 081219


RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 17/8/20092010
1.A VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (EDZANI)

2.A POSITION 2010/01/08 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.1S / 77.1E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 7.0/7.0 /D 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 905 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 120 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 20 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 340 SE: 340 SO: 240 NO: 170
50 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 050

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/01/09 00 UTC: 16.6S/75.2E, MAX WIND=120KT, VERY INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE.
24H: 2010/01/09 12 UTC: 17.2S/73.4E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
36H: 2010/01/10 00 UTC: 18.3S/71.7E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
48H: 2010/01/10 12 UTC: 19.6S/70.0E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
60H: 2010/01/11 00 UTC: 20.9S/69.0E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
72H: 2010/01/11 12 UTC: 21.8S/68.4E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=7.0-
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE STILL VERY FAVOURABLE UP TO TAU 36H WITH A
SECOND OUTFLOW CHANNEL BUILDING POLEWARD ON AND AFTER TAU 24H.
EDZANI KEEPS ON TRACKING GLOBALLY SOUTH-WESTWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT 48
HOURS THEN UNDERGOING THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A POLAR TROUGH SHIFTING
IN ITS SOUTH, SYSTEM SHOULD RECURVE MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS.
OVER THIS FORECASTED TRACK, WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS , SYSTEM IS NOT
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY , THEN AS IT TRACKS OVER LESS WARM
WATER (26.5 TO 27 CELCIUS DEGREES) , IT SHOULD SLIGHLTLY WEAKEN.
THIS FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF THE AVALAIBLE DETERMINIST NWP MODELS
WHICH ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND THE SPEED OF THE
SYSTEM.
WINDS HAVE BEEN RECALIBRATED THANKS TO THE VERY WELL DEFINED 08/0433Z
ASCAT SWATH.