Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
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WTIO30 FMEE 081818


RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 18/8/20092010
1.A VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (EDZANI)

2.A POSITION 2010/01/08 AT 1800 UTC :
16.4S / 76.2E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL TWO DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.5/7.0 /S 0.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 905 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 120 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 20 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 340 SE: 340 SO: 240 NO: 170
50 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 050

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/01/09 06 UTC: 17.4S/74.5E, MAX WIND=115KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
24H: 2010/01/09 18 UTC: 18.4S/72.5E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
36H: 2010/01/10 06 UTC: 19.6S/70.7E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
48H: 2010/01/10 18 UTC: 20.9S/69.6E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
60H: 2010/01/11 06 UTC: 22.0S/68.9E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
72H: 2010/01/11 18 UTC: 23.0S/68.3E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=6.5+. CI=7.0-
SHOWING A QUITE ANNULAR PATTERN, THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO HAVE REACHED ITS
MAXIMUM OF INTENSITY, CDO A LITLE LESS SYMETRIC, EYE A LITLE LESS WARM
SINCE THE VERY LAST HOURS.
HOWEVER ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN STILL VERY FAVOURABLE UP TO TAU
24H WITH A SECOND OUTFLOW CHANNEL BUILDING POLEWARD ON AND AFTER TAU
24H.
EDZANI KEEPS ON TRACKING GLOBALLY SOUTH-WESTWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS THEN UNDERGOING THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A POLAR TROUGH SHIFTING
IN ITS SOUTH, SYSTEM SHOULD RECURVE MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS.
OVER THIS FORECASTED TRACK, WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS , SYSTEM IS NOT
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY , THEN AS IT TRACKS OVER LESS WARM
WATER (26.5 TO 27 CELCIUS DEGREES) , IT SHOULD SLIGHLTLY WEAKEN.
THIS FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF THE AVALAIBLE DETERMINIST NWP MODELS
WHICH ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND THE SPEED OF THE
SYSTEM.