Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
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WTIO30 FMEE 090647


RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 20/8/20092010
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (EDZANI)

2.A POSITION 2010/01/09 AT 0600 UTC :
17.6S / 74.7E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/6.0 /W 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 925 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 105 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 10 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 340 SE: 340 SO: 240 NO: 170
50 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 050

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/01/09 18 UTC: 18.9S/72.7E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
24H: 2010/01/10 06 UTC: 20.2S/71.0E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
36H: 2010/01/10 18 UTC: 21.7S/69.9E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
48H: 2010/01/11 06 UTC: 23.2S/69.4E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
60H: 2010/01/11 18 UTC: 23.6S/69.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2010/01/12 06 UTC: 24.5S/68.2E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=5.0+. CI=6.0+
SATELITE IMAGERY AND MICROWAVES DATA SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING, WITH A LESS
DEFINED EYE. THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO HAVE UNDERGONE AN ERC (AQUA 08/1959Z,
SSMIS 09/00005Z).

EVEN IF ENVIRONMENTAL UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN STILL VERY FAVOURABLE
UP TO TAU 24 WITH A SECOND OUTFLOW CHANNEL BUILDING POLEWARD ON AND
AFTER TAU 24H, THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN OVER COOLER SSTS AND THEREFORE
OVER A LESSER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT (26.5 TO 27 CELCIUS DEGREES)

EDZANI SHOULD KEEP ON TRACKING GLOBALLY SOUTH-WESTWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS THEN RECURVE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), TEMPORARILY SLOW DOWN AS A NEW FAST TRACKING STR
REBUILDS IN THE SOUTHWEST, THEN ACCELERATE BEYOND 60H AND START TO
EVACUATE.

THIS FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF THE AVALAIBLE DETERMINIST NWP MODELS
WHICH ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND THE SYSTEM MOTION.