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WTIO30 FMEE 100639


RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 24/8/20092010
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (EDZANI)

2.A POSITION 2010/01/10 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.1S / 71.7E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/5.5 /W 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 947 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 13 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 340 SE: 360 SO: 190 NO: 270
50 KT NE: 055 SE: 055 SO: 040 NO: 040

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/01/10 18 UTC: 22.7S/70.9E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
24H: 2010/01/11 06 UTC: 24.1S/70.9E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
36H: 2010/01/11 18 UTC: 24.8S/70.9E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2010/01/12 06 UTC: 25.5S/70.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2010/01/12 18 UTC: 26.3S/68.4E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.
72H: 2010/01/13 06 UTC: 28.0S/67.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM
.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=4.5+ AND CI=5.5-

SLOW WEAKENING IS STILL ON THE WAY. EDZANI CONTINUES TO DISPLAY A FAIRLY
WELL DEFINED EYE PATTERN CURRENTLY. MEAN DT OVER THE LAST 6 HRS IS AT 4.8
WITH SOME 5.5 RAW DT AT 01:30Z, 02:30Z AND 03Z, SO THE CURRENT T IS
WITHIN THE 4.5+/5.0-. CONSEQUENTLY, CURRENT INTENSITY HAS ONLY BEEN
LOWERED OF 5 KT F
ROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

EDZANI IS WEAKENING BUT SHOULD HOWEVER KEEP ITS TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS (COOLER WATERS 26.5 TO 27 CELSIUS DEGREES).
IT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS STR REBUILD
SOUTHWARDS. TRACK SHOULD CONSEQUENTLY TAKE A TEMPORAL WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS
COMPONENT AND THEN MORE SOUTHWESTWARDS.BEYOND 72H, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE MID-LAT.

NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT EXCEPT, UKMO AND
ALADIN-REUNION THAT STRONGLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AT TAU 24 AND THEN BRING
IT ON A WESTWARDS TRACK