Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
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WTIO30 FMEE 111831


RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 30/8/20092010
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (EDZANI)

2.A POSITION 2010/01/11 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.9S / 73.2E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY THREE DECIMAL TWO
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST-SOUTH-EAST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/3.0 /W 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : 85 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 300 SE: 300 SO: 470 NO: 200

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2010/01/12 06 UTC: 26.3S/72.2E, MAX WIND=040KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
24H: 2010/01/12 18 UTC: 27.2S/70.2E, MAX WIND=040KT, BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL.
36H: 2010/01/13 06 UTC: 28.4S/68.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
48H: 2010/01/13 18 UTC: 30.2S/68.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2010/01/14 06 UTC: 32.4S/69.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2010/01/14 18 UTC: 34.5S/73.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0 AND CI=3.0+

LATEST WV AND IR IMAGERY AND SSMIS PASS OF 1451Z SUGGEST THAT TC EDZANI
HAS BEGUN ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. HOWEVER SYSTEM IS STILL ANALYSED
TO THE MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STATUS WITH A 0.3 CURVED BAND LOCATED
RATHER FAR AWAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER FOR FT=DT=2.0.

PRENSENT FIX IS BASED ON SSMIS PASS AT 1451Z AND LATEST IR IMAGERY FROM
MET7. SYSTEM HAS MADE AN EASTSOUTHEASTWARDS DRIFT OVER THE LAST HOURS
STILL UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO ITS
NORTHEAST. IT SEEMS TO HAVE SLOW DOWN AGAIN. IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, THE
SUBTROPICAL R
IDGE SOUTH-WEST OF EDZANI IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE STEERING FLOW FOR THE
NEXT 36 HOURS. CONSEQUENTLY THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS.
IT IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE SOUTHWARDS THEN SOUTHEASTWARDS AND ACCELERATE
TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES BEYOND.

AVERAGE WIND SPEED SHOULD REMAIN BY THE ORDER OF THE GALE FORCE 40KT OVER
THE FORECASTED PERIOD ACCORDING TO THE GRADIENT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
HIGH PRESSURES.

CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE THAT
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT.