AWIO20 FMEE 011121
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER
IN THE SOUTHWEST
05/09/01 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1 :
WARNING SUMMARY : Nil.
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
Low pressures extends north of 15S with a related near equatorial
trough, ,most stretching equatorward of 5S.
In this area, a low level clockwise circulation exists and is
centered near 4,7S/85,1E at 1030Z.
Associated winds reach 15/25 kt and locally 30kt in the south due
to the gradient effect with the subtropical high pressures.
Minimum Sea Level Pressure is estimated at 1004 hPa.
Associated weak to moderate convection is fluctuating north of 10S
and is constrainted by a moderate to rather strong northeasterly
vertical windshear, existing all over the basin, north of 15S.
Most of the available NWP models analyse this low and maintain it
in the same area during a few days without deepen it significantly
at short or medium range (only one of them deep it
on and after
next saturday in relationship with
the weakening northeasterly
high level winds)
Elsewhere, convection is disorganized and is fluctuating, mainly
stretches near equator, east of 50 E and north of 5 S.
For the next 24h, development of a tropical depression is not