AWIO20 FMEE 041157
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER
IN THE SOUTHWEST
INDIAN OCEAN
DATE:
05/09/04 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1 :
WARNING SUMMARY : Nil.
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
:
An area with scattered and fluctuating convective activity exist
over the basin;
from 02S to 10S, between 79E and 90E.
Associated to it, within the near equatorial trough, a low level
clockwise circulation can be detected on the animated imagery,
centred near 02S/85E at 1000Z. The low level circulation is now
completly exposed on satellite imagery, tracking slowly eastwards.
Associated winds are up to 15/20 kt, locally reaching 25/30 kt in
the south due to the gradient effect with the subtropical high
pressures (QuikSCAT ).
Minimum sea level pressure is estimated at 1006 hPa.
Moderate northerly windshear exists over the area, stronger near
the equator.
Available NWP models analyse this low and maintain it in the same
area during a few days without deepening it significantly at short
or medium range.
For the next 24h, development of a tropical depression is not
expected.

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