AWIO20 FMEE 051223
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER
IN THE SOUTHWEST
INDIAN OCEAN
DATE:
05/09/05 AT 1200 UTC
- COR
PART 1 :
WARNING SUMMARY :
Warning nr 001/01 related to the zone of disturbed weather
nr1,
issued at 0600UTC
Next warning issued at 1200UTC
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
:
Perturbation Tropicale N 1 :
Last night, deep convection got organized and is now closer
to the
LLCC (cf SSMI 0046UTC)
At1000Z , Dvorak analysis leads to T=CI=2,0-
Recent Indoex Satellite multispectral imagery reveals the Low Level
Circulation Center (LLCC) is located near 4,4S/86,5E and associated
winds are about 20/25 kt, reaching locally 30/35 kt far in the
south due to the gradient effect with the subtropical high
pressures.
Minimum Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) is estimated at 1001 hPa.
Deep convection is scattered and mainly located in the southern
semi-circle.
The System evolves in a neutral environment.
In spite of its location (north of 5S), low level vorticity is well
sustained polarward by a good trade winds flow 30/35kt and
equatorward by a westerly flow at 20/25kt.
Vertical windshear is rather strong equatorward but is weak to
moderate polarward.
Upper Level Divergence is good and Sea Surface Temperatures (SST)
are about
27 to 29 C from 10S to the equator.
Most of the available NWP models analyse this low and deepen it
slowly during the next 48 hours.
System is expected to track south-westwards during the next 24
hours and to intensify slowly.
Elsewhere, there is no other suspect area.
For the next 24h, potential for development of a tropical
depression is upgraded to fair.

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