AWIO20 FMEE 131110
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
WEATHER IN THE SOUTHWEST
INDIAN OCEAN
DATE:
05/12/13 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1 :
WARNING SUMMARY : Nil
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
:
The NET is located along 08S axis and east of 70E and is
materialized by fluctuating convective activity, east of 70E and
north of 13S. An area of fluctuating convection associated to a
broad weak clockwise circulation is present north to 10S between
50E and 60E.
North to Madagescar :
A low level clockwise circulation is centred near 8.9S/52E a 1030Z.
MSLP is estimated at 1009 hPa and associated winds up to 10/15 kt.
Within this area, environment remains favorable with weak vertical
windshear and SST near 28/29
C.
monsoon flow is well established
along africans
coasts 15/20 kt but remains weak 5/10 kt between
50E ans 60E.
On the eastern part of the basin :
Within an moderate to rather strong vertical wind sheared area
existing north to 8S, flutuating convective activity is weak to
moderate, stronger near 10S. Recent multispectral satellite imagery
depected a weak low level clockwise circulation completly exposed
near 9S/75E with an estimated MSLP of 1008 hPa and winds about
15/20 kt.
NWP
only significantly deepen a weak circulation within the
eastern part of th basin at medium range.
For the next 24 hours, development of a tropical depression is not
expected.

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