AWIO20 FMEE 081008
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST
INDIAN OCEAN
DATE:
06/02/08 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1 :
WARNING SUMMARY : Nil
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
:
The basin is undergoing Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ICTZ) west
of 70E and Near Equatorial Trough (NET)
east of 70E.
- ICTZ (western part) exist along 10S axis with fluctuating and
locally moderate associated convective activity
(mainly located in
the northern and northeastern parts of Madagascar and also between
60E et 65E).
- In the eastern part of ICTZ, recent satellite imagery reveals
a Low Level Circulation centered at 0900UTC near 13.8S/67.5E.
Associated convective activity remains cyclic. Minimum Sea Level
Pressure is estimated at 1009 hPa and last night quikscat swat
(0201UTC) is bad resolved but shows associated winds up to 10/15kt.
Environment is rather favourable with weak vertical windshear in
this area and neutral to rather good upper level divergence. Low
Level Equatorward Inflow is not well sustained and not direct due
to an anticylonic circulation located near 3S and 65E.
Available NWP models analyse this circulation without deepen it
significantly at short range
The only UK MetOffice NWP model develops this low within 120H to
144H.
- In the NET (eastern part) , there is no significant low level
circulation.
2 Upper Level Clockwise Circulation (TUTT) are revealed by Water
Vapor Infrared Imagery over the basin.
The first one is centered at 0900UTC near 20.3S/70.3E and is well
defined by Water Vapor InfraRed Indoex imagery. Associated
Tropopause Level is lower and a cold area with TPW at 16 C exists
between the levels 700hPa and 500hPa.
The second one is located at 0900UTC near
20.4S/59.1E moving
westwards during the last few hours and it could favour convective
activity over the Mascareignes Islands.
NWP models analyse this 2 TUTT with a maximal vorticity near the
level 250hPa.
For the next 24 hours, development of a tropical depression is
not expected.

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