AWIO20 FMEE 141034
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST
INDIAN OCEAN
DATE:
06/02/14 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1 :
WARNING SUMMARY : Nil
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
:
ICTZ exists and is materialized by fluctuating weak to moderate
convective activity west of 70E.
It stretches along 10S axis in the northern mozambical channel and
extends to 16S between 50E and 60E
in relationship with a low
existing north-east of Madagascar. Between
60E and 70E , ICTZ
exists from 14S to 10S.
West of 60E, Monsoon flow is well established 10/15kt but is
indirect more eastern due to an anticyclonic low level circulation
centered near 5S and 72E.
Within this ICTZ, recent Indoex imagery reveals an extending low
level clockwise circulation centered at 0900UTC near 12.6S/52.8E.
MSLP is estimated at 1007 hPa and associated winds up to 15/20kt
(cf quikscat swat at 0235UTC) but strongest winds are far from the
LLCC. There is no associated convective activity near the center.
According to Indoex Water Vapor imagery, clockwise circulation
extends high vertically.
It's confirmed by available NWP models analyse (cf flow and wind
fields at 250 hPa).
Despite
good low level environment, this low doesn't present
potential to intensify, as long as upper level clockwise
circulation blocks upper level divergence (during the next 24
hours).
At medium range, available NWP models disagree. ECMWF and Arpege
Tropiques maintain this low in the same area without deepen it
significantly. UKMO NWP model deepens it in the vicinity of the
Mascareignes Islands during the next week-end.
Elsewhere, there is no suspect area.
For the next 24 hours, development of a tropical depression is
not expected.

---