AWIO20 FMEE 151118
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST
INDIAN OCEAN
DATE:
06/12/15 AT 1200 Z
PART 1 :
WARNING SUMMARY : nil
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
:
An area of inorganized and fluctuating - weak to moderate -
convection activity, exists from 5S to 15S, between 65E and 76E. A
poorly defined and weak clockwise circulation can be dectected on
the animated imagery, centred at 0900Z near 7S/71E. MSLP is
estimated at 1010 hPa.
A other weak and poorly defined clockwise ciculation without any
associated convection is centred at 0900Z near 10S/51E . The MSLP
is estimated at 1010hPa.
Convection exists also east to 85E and north to 10S, no low can be
detected over this area.
South to these two areas, trades flow is moderate, but there is no
moonson flow in the north. The upper level configuration is rather
favourable, with a weak to moderate vertical wind shear and a good
divergence in the vicinity of the upper level ridge.
Available NWP models analyse these two lows,
and make them track
westwards, without intensifying significantly the western one.
Some NPW show a weak to moderate moonson flow established west to
65E at middle range, and deepen slithly the eastern low up to
middle range.
For the next 24 hours, development of a tropical depression is not
expected.

---