AWIO20 FMEE 171132
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST
INDIAN OCEAN
DATE:
06/12/17 AT 1200 Z
PART 1 :
WARNING SUMMARY : warning (WTIO20) issued at 12Z about the
tropical disturbance n 3.
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
:
Convective activity exists on the main part of the basin north of
13S, going down to 15S over the Mozambique Channel.
1. North of the Mozambique Channel, the low level circulation
identified yesterday is dissipating. It remains few convective
activity disorganized and fluctuating.
2. A rather important area of deep convective activity, totally
disorganized in a strongly easterly sheared environment, without
any associated low level circulation, exists over the Seychelles
Islands, north of 6S between 50E and 60E.
3. Tropical disturbance n 3 :
Convective activity southwest of Chagos Islands is rapidly
organizing, recent micro-waves imagery depicts convective curved
bands starting towrap into the center.
Environmental conditions are favorable for an intensification, with
rather good inflow (light monsoon and trade winds flows) in low
level, good outflow in high level (200 hPa subtropical ridge).
Southeasterly vertical windshear is weak to moderate, and the LLCC
is partially exposed southeast of convection.
The NWP models are in good agreement for intensification and track
westwards on the northern edge of subtropical high.
For further informations, see Warning 001/03 (WTIO20).
For the next 24 hours, the potential for development of a tropical
depression isupgraded to good

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