AWIO20 FMEE 181101
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST
INDIAN OCEAN
DATE:
06/12/18 AT 1200 Z
PART 1 :
WARNING SUMMARY :
Warning nr 003/03 related to the tropical disturbance nr 3, issued
at 0600Z.
Next warning at 1200Z.
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
:
Convective activity mainly exists on the western part of the basin,
north of 15S, from the african coasts to 70E. This convective
activity is fluctuating and inorganized.
Tropical disturbance nr 3:
At 1000Z, the disturbance was centred near 10.8S/63.4E, tracking
westwards at 6 kts. MSLP is estimated at 1000 hPa, and winds are of
the order of 20/25 knots, locally reaching 30 knots in the southern
sector.
Associated area of convection has oragnized over the last hours
(micro-wave data F14 at 0112Z, F13 at 0211Z, F15 at 0349Z), and
LLCC is better defined (AuikSCAT at 0148Z)
Environmental conditions remain favorable for an intensification,
with rather good inflow (light monsoon flow and established trade
winds flow) in low levels, and neutral vertical windshear due to
its location under the upper level ridge.
The NWP models are in good agreement to gradually intensify this
low and track westwards on the northern edge of subtropical high.
For further informations, see warning nr 003/03 and followings.
For the next 24 hours, the potential for development of a tropical
depression is good

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