AWIO20 FMEE 191005
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST
INDIAN OCEAN
DATE:
06/12/19 AT 1200 Z
PART 1 :
WARNING SUMMARY :
Warning nr 007/03 related to the tropical cyclone Bondo, issued at
0600Z.
Next warning at 1200Z.
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
:
Convective activity, excepted the one associated to Bondo,
mainly
exists on the western part of the basin and on the northern part of
the Mozambical chanel, north of 15S, from the african coasts to
48E, and east to
72E. This convective activity is fluctuating and
inorganized.
Tropical Cyclone Bondo :
At 09000Z, the cyclone was centred near 10.6S/59E, tracking
westwards at 10 kts. MSLP is estimated at 960 hPa, and maximum
winds are of the order of 75 knots, in the wall of the eye.
System has rapidly intensifyed during last nigth and the next
morning, reaching cyclone stage in the morning, with a small well
defined eye.
Environmental conditions have clearly improved with a second
outflow chanel equatorwards, and establishment of a moderate
moonson flow more direct.
The NWP models are in good agreement to
track it westwards on the
northern edge of subtropical high, but at different speed. only one
NWP from all those availables deepened it significantly at short
range, the others deepened it slowly up to middle range.
For further informations, see warning nr 007/03 and followings.
For the next 24 hours, the potential for development of an other
tropical depression is poor.

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