AWIO20 FMEE 151007
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER
IN THE SOUTHWEST
INDIAN OCEAN
DATE:
07/02/14 AT 1200 Z .
PART 1 :
WARNING SUMMARY :
Warning nr 013/09 related to the moderate tropical storm
FAVIO,
issued at 0600Z
Next warning at 1200Z.
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
:
ITCZ exists along 15S axis, between 10S et 17S in the Mozambique
Channel, going up along 10S axis between 7S and 14S, west of 60E.
Monsoon flow exists over the basin, west of 65E.
Within the ITCZ, convective activity is fluctuating and no
associated clockwise can be detected.
Moderate Tropical Storm FAVIO :
At 0900Z, the system was located near 18.4S/62.9E tracking
southwestwards at 13 kt. The system has organized since the end of
the night, and shows a curved band pattern. T=Ci=2.5+,
MSLP is
estimated at 995 hPa, and maximum winds at 35 kt.
Upper level environment is rather favourable (weak to moderate
decreasing westerly vertical windshear, good upper level
divergence), but in the low levels, monsoon flow is still not well
established.
NWP disagree with intensification (ARPTROP maintains the system
weak, UKMO dissipates it at short range, and ECMWF intensifies),
but do agree with track, on the northwestern edge of the
subtropical high pressures.
This system should intensify slowly over the next 24 hours, then
more quickly beyond, track southwestwards towards Mascarenes Islands
For further information, see warnings nr 013/09 and followings.
For the next 24 hours, there is no potential for development
of another tropical depression.

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