AWIO20 FMEE 221113
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER
IN THE SOUTHWEST
INDIAN OCEAN
DATE:
07/02/22 AT 1200 Z .
PART 1 :
WARNING SUMMARY :
Warning nr 041/09 related to the intense tropical cyclone "FAVIO",
issued at 0600Z,
Warning nr 008/10 related to the moderate tropical storm "GAMEDE",
issued at 0600Z,
Warning nr004/11 related to the tropical depression n 11, issued at
0600Z.
Next warning at 1200Z.
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
:
The monsoon flow exists all over the basin, the convective activity
is located over 4 areas :
-1- Intense Tropical Cyclone "FAVIO"
Favio has intensifyed at the end of the night approaching
Mozambique coasts (Ci5.5+ at 0600Z). It recently shows few signs of
weakening as it is making landfall in the Vilanculos Bay.
At 0900Z, Favio is center by 22.0S/35.4E (T4.5+, Ci5.5+), MSLP 935
hPa, max winds (10 min average) estimated at 95kt near the centre
(gusts at135kt). This is a small system with 25km diameter eye.
Add to strong winds and heavy rainfall, the storm surge and
cyclonic swell should make havoc in the Vilanculos Bay.
Always steered by the mid high level high stationnary over the
south of africa, Favio shoud keep on tracking northwestwards and
weaken overland.
For further information, see warnings nr 041/09 and followings.
-2- Between 45E and 55E, from 10S to 25S :
A wide low level clockwise circulation still exists northeast of
Mascarenes Islands, near Tromelin Island, with a MSLP estimated at
1003 hPa. This trough should track eastwards towards Madagascar,
and generates convective activity (heavy rainfall)in the
convergence line, south of the trough, over the eastern coasts of
Madagascar south of 16S during the next 24 hours.
-3- "GAMEDE"
"GAMEDE" showed an improving organization during the past few
hours. The lower layer clockwise circulation remains broad, with a
convective activity and strong winds extending rather far from the
centre. At 0900Z, the centre of the LLCC was located near
14.2S/70.0E, with MSLP near 993 hPa, tracking westwards. "GAMEDE"
environment is favourable, with an optimum upper level divergence ;
the system is expected to keep on tracking westwards, intensifying
gradually once the convective activity has gathered near the LLCC.
For further information, see warnings nr 008/10 and followings.
Tropical Depression Nr11
After revealing a LLCC exposed in the east of the deep convection,
last Meteosat7 satellite imagery shows a low level center more
phased under the souteastern edge of the deep convective activity.
At 0830Z, system presents a curved band pattern wrapped on a little
more than one half-turn and centered near 11.5S/84.3E, probably
letting consider that the system will reach the minimal stage as
moderate tropical storm within the next few hours.
Evironment is favourable with a weakening vertical windshear, a
good upper level divergence and a godd low layer inflow.
Available NWP models are in good agreement about the forecasted
track linked to a ridge streching along
90E axis from ground to
midlevel and towards a polar trough arriveing by the west.
It should slow down at medium range undergoing the
rebuilding
southwestern subtropical high pressures.
For further information, see warnings nr 004/11 and followings.
For the next 24 hours, there is no potential for development
of
another tropical depression.

---