AWIO20 FMEE 231112
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER
IN THE SOUTHWEST
INDIAN OCEAN
DATE:
07/02/23 AT 1200 Z .
PART 1 :
WARNING SUMMARY :
Last Warning nr 041/09 related to the overland Depression
"ex-FAVIO", issued at 0600Z,
Warning nr 012/10 related to the tropical cyclone "GAMEDE", issued
at 0600Z,
Warning nr008/11 related to the moderate tropical storm "HUMBA",
issued at 0600Z.
Next warning for "GAMEDE" and "HUMBA" at 1200Z.
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
:
The monsoon flow exists all over the basin, the convective activity
is located over 4 areas :
1- In the mozambican channel :
Linked to the monsoon trough stretching along 16S axis, deep
convective activity exists between 13S and 20S. It remains
fluctuating and disorganized without significative low level
clockwise circulation.
2-Overland Depression ex-FAVIO
"ex-Favio" is beeing disorganized gradually and strongest winds
doesn't exceed 30kt anymore with gusts up to 40kt existing within
30 nm radius of the center.
Over the sea near the coastline ; strongest winds are less than
near gale force winds with gusts under squalls. it is expected to
keep on tracking mainly north-northwestwards. strong winds and
heavy rainfall may affect the sofala, inhambane and manica
provinces, as well a the eastern part of zimbabwe. At 0900UTC,
center is located near 18.9S/33.5E.
For further information, see the last warnings 045/09 issued at
0600utc and then refeer to the tropical cyclone forecast warnings
from rsmc la reunion - WTIO31 (french version) and WTIO30 (english
version).
3- Tropical Cyclone "GAMEDE"
At 1000UTC, Gamede presents an eye pattern centered near
16.3S/59.8E and Dvorak analysis in Enhanced Infrared between
0730UTC and 1030UTC gives T=CI=5.0- but eye is not well defined on
the last picture at 1000UTC.
System presents a large low level circulation with a MSLP probably
lower than regular relation between winds and pressure in the SWIO
(cf Synop in St-Brandon at 0900UTC with MSLP at 966.2 hPa).
Deep convective activity remains rather fluctuationg but undergoing
favourable environmental conditions with a particulary efficient
equatorward outflow channel, "Gamede" is exepected to progressively
intensify along a west-southwestwards track.
For further information, see warnings nr 012/10 and followings.
4- Moderate Tropical Storm HUMBA:
At 1000UTC, system shows a curved band pattern centered near
13.6/81.8E (this point is more northern relocated than the 0600Z
one).
Dvorak analysis gives T=CI=3.0+ so closed to the severe tropical
storm stage.
The environment of this system is not optimum yet for an
intensification, but the environment of this system is expected to
improve : weakening vertical wind shear, better upper level
divergence (both polar and equatorward outflow). this system is
thus expected to intensify gradually along a parabol ic track.
For further information, see warnings nr 008/11 and followings.
For the next 24 hours, there is no potential for development
of
another tropical depression.

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