AWIO20 FMEE 240950
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER
IN THE SOUTHWEST
INDIAN OCEAN
DATE:
07/02/24 AT 1200 Z .
PART 1 :
WARNING SUMMARY :
Warning nr 016/10 related to the tropical cyclone "GAMEDE", issued
at 0600Z,
Warning nr012/11 related to the Severe
Tropical Storm "HUMBA",
issued at 0600Z.
Next warning for "GAMEDE" and "HUMBA" at 1200Z.
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
:
The monsoon flow exists all over the basin, the convective activity
is located over 4 areas :
1- In the mozambican channel :
Linked to the monsoon trough stretching along 16S axis, deep
convective activity exists between 13S and 25S. It remains
fluctuating and disorganized, neverless the data quikscat of
0358utc this morning reveles a weak clockwise circulation
10/15 kt
near 26S/E with an estimated pression of
1006hPa. upper level
environment is not favorable with moderate westerly vertical wind
shear over the area.
2-Overland Depression ex-FAVIO
The residual low
"ex-Favio" is dissipating near 15S/31E. the
associated convection is morceleted, some isolated thunderstorms
may occur with diurnal cycle.
3- Tropical Cyclone "GAMEDE"
At 0900UTC, Gamede presents an eye pattern, with now a well defined
eye, centered near
17.8S/57E and Dvorak analysis
gives T=CI=5.0 .
System presents a large low level circulation with a MSLP probably
lower than regular relation between winds and pressure in the SWIO.
Estimated pression
is about 950 hPa and winds about 80kt.
The system is undergoing favourable environmental conditions with a
particulary efficient
equatorward outflow channel, "Gamede" is
exepected to progressively intensify along a west-southwestwards
track.
For further information, see warnings nr 016/10 and followings.
4- Severe Tropical Storm HUMBA:
At 0900UTC, system shows an eye pattern centered near 15.9/79.6E .
Dvorak analysis gives T=CI=4.0+ so closed to the tropical cyclone
stage.
The environment of this system is now more favorable with
better
upper level divergence (both polar and equatorward outflow). this
system is thus expected to intensify gradually along a parabol ic
track.
For further information, see warnings nr 012/11 and followings.
For the next 24 hours, there is no potential for development
of
another tropical depression.

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