AWIO20 FMEE 151110
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER
IN THE SOUTHWEST
INDIAN OCEAN
DATE:
07/03/15 AT 1200 Z
PART 1 :
WARNING SUMMARY :
Warning nr 019/12 related to the tropical cyclone "INDLALA",
issued at 0600Z.
Warning 005/13 related to the zone of disturbed weather n 13",
issued at 0600Z.
Next warning at 1200Z.
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
:
Trans-equatorial monsoon flow is established all over the basin. It
stays north of 10S in the mozambican channel and down to 19S
between the eastern malagasy coastline and 55E linked to INDLALA.
Between 55E and 73E, it stays limited north of 7S and exists down
to 21S again between 73E and 83E in relationship to the Tropical
Disturbance Nr13.
Convective activity is mainly located around this 2 tropical lows.
-1- "INDLALA" :
After buckling northwards between 0000UTC and 0400UTC, INDLALA has
globally tracked west-southwestwards again and has maked landfall
at 0500UTC at
Intense Tropical Cyclone Stage over the northeastern
malagasy coastline , few kilometers in the north of Antalaha.
System is forecasted to weak rapidly overland and should dissipate
within 48 hours.
For further information, see warnings nr 015/12 and followings.
-2- Tropical Disturbance Nr13:
Lats night quikscat swat shows a better organized low level
circulation but the system is now constrainted by a
west-northwesterly vertical windshear and the center is totally
exposed , located at 0930UTC near 17.3S/76.3E.
MSLP is estimated at 1001hPa with winds near the center up to
20/25kt locally reaching 30kt in the southern semi-circle due to
the gradient effect with the subtropical high pressures.
Environmental conditions should not
improve at short or medium
range and the system is forecasted to keep on tracking
south-southwestwards and then to be blocked north of 22S linked to
the southern subtropical high pressures.
For further information, see warnings nr 005/13 and
followings.
For the next 24 hours, the potential for development of a tropical
depression is fair.

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