AWIO20 FMEE 111149
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER
IN THE SOUTHWEST
INDIAN OCEAN
DATE:
08/01/11 AT 1200 Z
PART 1 :
WARNING SUMMARY : nil
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
:
Mozambican channel presents a monsoon trough pattern ....:
Transequatorial flow still exist from the African coastline to
55E.;
It feeds a weak monsoon trough stretching along 14S axis
with thunderstorm activity south of Comoros archipelago and Mayotte
Island.
...and near-equatorial trough exists elsewhere over the SWIO:
Transequatorial flow only exists between 65E and 77E but remains
weak (5 to 10kt) making a low level inflow for fluctuating and
scattered convective activity existing north of 10S between 60E and
70E . Some NWP models analyse a low in this area but satellite
imagery animation doesn't reveal any significative clockwise
circulation.
Elsewhere, the Near-Equatorial-Trough (NET) streching along 6S axis
without generating deep convective activity linked to an inactive
phase of MJO existing over a wide northeastern part of the indian
ocean.
Tropical disturbance nr 7:
Last multispectral Meteosat7 imagery shows a well defined residual
vortex centered at 1000Z by 21.4S/51.0E shifting globally
west-southwestwards at 6kt.
MSLP is estimated at 1009 hPa and winds near the center are about
15 a 20kt locally reaching 25kt in the southern semi-circle due to
the gradient effect with the subtropical high pressures.
LLCC is generally totally exposed but cyclic deep convective bursts
occur regullary near the center. Deep convective clusters are
mainly located in the northwestern quadrant undergoing a moderate
southerly to southeasterly vertical windshear.
Thunderstrom could also occur over eastern and southeastern
Malagasy coastlines within the next 48 to 72 hours.
Residual vortex is expected moving wetswards or west-southwestwards
over the next 24 hours and then recurving southwestwards. It shoud
filled over land south of Farafangana during sunday the 13th
For the next 24 hours,
there is no potential for development of a
tropical depression.

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