AWIO20 FMEE 181048
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER
IN THE SOUTHWEST
INDIAN OCEAN
DATE:
08/03/18
AT 1200 Z
PART 1 :
WARNING SUMMARY : Nil
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
:
Monsoon flow is established between 60E and 80E, and feeds a
scattered and fluctuating ITCZ, present between 57E and 67E, from
5S to 12S.
-1- Within this ITCZ, a broad but still poorly defined can be
detected on the animated imagery and the QuikSCAT swath at 18/0117Z.
At 0900Z, this LLC was centred near 11S/69E ; the movement is
quasi-stationary for the last 24 hours. Associated convective
activity is weak and inorganized, and is not present near the
centre.
Winds are rather weak close to the centre, of the order of 10 to 15
knots, but reach 20 knots, even locally 25 knots in the periphery,
between 100 NM and 400 NM from the centre in the northern and
southern sectors. In 24 hours, buoys SLP in the vicinity of the
system have slightly decreased, about 1 hPa. MSLP is estimated at
1004 hPa.
Environmental conditions are not optimal ; poleward low level
inflow is weak as a trough shifts in the south, and easterly
windshear is moderate to strong
under the equartorward side of the
upper level ridge. Environment becomes favorable to intensification
beyond the next 48 hours.
NWP analyse and develop this low but do not deepen it significantly
before tau 48.
-2- A weak LLC can be detected on the far eastern part of the
basin, centred at 0900Z near 7S/88E. Winds reach 10/15 knots (ASCAT
18/0422Z), and MSLP is estimated at 1006 hPa. Associated convective
activity is weak and inorganized.
NWP analyse this low, but do not deepen it significantly , even at
long range.
For the next 24 hours, potential for development of a tropical
depression is poor, and becomes fair beyond, related to -1-.

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