AWIO20 FMEE 121146
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST
INDIAN OCEAN
DATE:
2009/11/12
AT 1200 UTC
PART 1 :
WARNING SUMMARY : Nil
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
:
With a monsoon flow established between 60E and 80E, ITCZ remains
well defined east of 60E and along 6S. Associated convective
activity is moderate to strong and is mainly located between the
equator and 10S.
Scatterometric data of the last 24 hours show that a weak low has
formed at about 130 nm northeast of Diego-Garcia. Ascat pass of
04:04Z shows that the ill-defined LLCC is located near 6.4S/74.3E
with weak winds in the 10/20 kt range and a MSLP estimated at 1003
hPa (according Diego-Suarez data).
Environmentals conditions are conducive for some further
development of this system. Vertical windshear is still moderate to
strong over the area (20-30 kt according cimss data), but should
decrease for at least the next 48 hours. Upper level divergence is
excellent especially equatorwards (cf. WV animation). Low level
inflow is well established both north and south of the system. SST
are in the 28 C range and remains favourables near 13-14S.
All the available NWP guidance analyse this low and develop it for
the next 48 hours.
Elsewhere over the basin, there is no significant convective
activity.
For the next 3 days, potential for development of a tropical
depression is fair for the next 24
hours and become good beyond.

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