AWIO20 FMEE 041051
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST
INDIAN OCEAN
DATE:
2010/01/04 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1 :
WARNING SUMMARY :
Nil but a warning, related to the tropical disturbance nr 08, will
be issued at 1200Z.
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
:
-1-Transequatorial moonson flow is established all over the basin.
It extends down to 20S in the Mozambique Channel and feeds an
active but fluctuating ITCZ over the entire channel between 10S and
20S.
No significant cyclogenesis is expected for the next 3 days between
African Coastline and Madagascar.
-2-Over the Mascarenes area, convective activity is locally strong
in association with a convergence between a northerly low level
flow and the easterly flow of the subtropical high pressures.
Within this area, available models develop a subtropical-like low
within the next 24 hours. Currently, no clockwise circulation can
be detected on the animated imagery. However this circulation,
poorly defined, appears on the ASCAT data 03/1844Z and 04/0600Z
(partial swath), with winds at 10/15 knots and MSLP estimated at
1006 hPa.
-3-East of 50E,
the eastern monsoon flow feeds a monsoon trough
stretching along 10S axis.
Associated convective activity is present between 6S and 13S from
50E to 65E and also east of 70E.
This convection is flutuating with no asscoiated clockwise
circulation.
-4- Tropical disturbance nr 08
The tropical low previously monitored bt TCWC Perth has crossed the
90E at about 0300Z and is now under RSMC La Reunion responsibility.
At 1000Z, this system was centred near 10.4S/88.5E, globally
tracking weswtards at 12 knots.
T=Ci=2.0, 25 kt, 1000 hPa.
The environnement is not currently favourable, with the presence of
a strong easterly windshear.
For further details, see warnings nr 001/08 (will be issued at
1200Z ) and followings.
For the next 24 hours, potential for development of a tropical
depression is fair.