AWIO20 FMEE 051107
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST
INDIAN OCEAN
DATE:
2010/01/05 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1 :
WARNING SUMMARY :
Warning n 04/08 issued on Tropical Disturbance n 8 at 0600Z. Next
warning at 1200Z.
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
:
-1-Transequatorial moonson flow is established all over the basin.
It feeds an ITCZ that is axing along 14S/40E - 14S/46E - 9S/53E -
7S/80E - 10S/97E. Associated deep convective activity is
fluctuating and is located between 11S and 14S over the Mozambique
channel and between 8S and 13S northeast of Madagascar. Strong
convection within the ITCZ is present east of 65E and along 7S.
-2- Between Madagascar and the Mascareignas archipelago, a
disturbed weather area is still present between 20S and 30S and
50E-55E. No clockwise circulation can be detected at this time
based on surface observations and satellite imagery. As the
tradewinds inflow should get stronger tomorrow (strengthening od
the STR from the southwest), a low could develop around 25S and
then move southeastwards. Environmentals conditions remain
unfavourable due to strong northwesterly shear.
-4- Tropical disturbance nr 08
At 1000Z, system remains ill-defined and hard to localize. Under a
quit strong easterly shear, 2 low level vortex are exposed east of
the main deep convection that continu strongly over the western
part of the circulation. The more westwards and closer to the deep
convection (considered as the main center until now) is located
near 11.5S/85.8E. The second one, more ill-defined,
is near
12.8S/86.3E. Latest satellite imagery suggest that the two low
level vortex are together in rotation . The mean center of this
dipolar structure is around 12S/85.8E. Max winds are estimated in
the 25-30 kt range and MSLP estimated at 999 hPa.
System is expected to slowly intensified for the next 24-36 hours
as it track generally westsouthwestwards.
For further details, see warnings nr 004/08 and followings.
For the next 24 hours, potential for development of a tropical
depression is upgraded to good.